Provocative uncertainty
Uncertainty maintains a direct correlation with variables that are difficult to control and is increasing due to the dynamics of the modern world in which, daily, countless events are generated that leave us with questions rather than certainties.
Issues such as the world economic situation; the volatility of variables related to inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), access to education, unemployment, the effects of climate change on populations and the sustainability of businesses; the impact of emerging conflicts; and even the arrival of new governments, are just some examples of the topics of conversation that are on the table, which generate nervousness and are especially decisive for the future of Latin America.
Those who live in the region have witnessed years marked by social unrest and a high level of economic and political instability that seems to give no respite.
Those who live in the region have witnessed years marked by social unrest and a high level of economic and political instability that seems to give no respite.
The International Monetary Fund recently estimated that inflation will be 12.1% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023, one of the highest in twenty-five years, which has consequences on consumption dynamics and people’s purchasing power. UNESCO and UNICEF noted that, despite progress, Latin America will not achieve the education goals of the 2030 Agenda due to stagnation in key indicators of access to primary and secondary education, assessments of the quality of learning, and the increase in certain specific gaps at the tertiary level.
Likewise, the International Labor Organization warned that, although Latin America and the Caribbean have reduced their unemployment rate to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2022, most of the jobs recovered are in informal conditions. Moreover, ECLAC mentioned that the extreme poverty rate in the region would rise from 13.8% in 2021 to 14.9% in 2022, that is, 1.1 percentage points higher than in 2020, increasing the risk that the population will not have food security. Some organizations focused on the conservation of the environment, also unveiled that in 2021 deforestation in the Amazon rainforest doubled compared to the 2009-2018 average, reaching its highest level since 2009 and losing a forest area of 12,000 square kilometers, 22% higher than in 2020.
Although estimates seem to ignore the efforts being made from different perspectives to turn the situation around, as evidenced by remarkable results such as the economic recovery of some markets, the rebound in exports, the arrival of foreign investment, the consolidation of technology and entrepreneurship hubs in the region, or the active agenda on sustainability issues, the truth is that we still face a challenge related to openness to understanding uncertainty. This challenge represents an opportunity to search for solutions that will allow us to emerge stronger from this moment, especially concerning the capabilities needed to anticipate changes more and better, so that we are not only not surprised, but also take advantage of predictability to put it at the service of generating greater wellbeing.
This challenge represents an opportunity to search for solutions that will allow us to emerge stronger from this moment, especially concerning the capabilities needed to anticipate changes more and better.
As Maggie Jackson, American writer and author of Distracted, once said: Reclaiming Our Focus in a World of Lost Attention: “Uncertainty is a sort of provocative thinking. It takes us out of routine, automatic habits, and patterns, forcing us to new horizons. It is absolutely critical for thinking, for creativity, even for mental well-being and resilience.”
Undoubtedly, this is a significant and complex task in which the recursiveness that has always characterized us, cooperation, and the contribution of all of us who are part of this society will be fundamental to continue building and working to close the gaps that keep us away from core issues such as equity and growth with quality.
The conditions are in place, and we have the means to capitalize on the context in our favor, but we must take a step forward, especially from the business sector, to understand the moment we are going through, understand what the context demands, maintain optimism, bet on confidence and continue to promote measures that guarantee recovery in the short and medium term, and also promote productivity, competitiveness, formal employability, sector transformation processes, connectivity, technification, digitalization, and the generation of greater economic, social and environmental value.
The conditions are in place, and we have the means to capitalize on the context in our favor, but we must take a step forward, especially from the business sector, to understand the moment we are going through
Let us give ourselves the license to learn as we go and embrace uncertainty as a springboard to contribute and fulfill the objectives we have as Latin Americans.
